The Williamson Ledger

The month in land, growth and county business — Williamson County, Tennessee

Subscribe

What was voted, filed and sold in Williamson County each month, and what it means for land.

Free. One email a month. Unsubscribe any time.

Three things moved the ground under Williamson County last month, and only one of them was a rezoning. The county put its hospital on the block. The school district lost 726 students. And the argument that developers have lost at the podium for a decade — the schools are full — just got a lot harder to make in most of this county, and a lot easier in four specific places.

This is the first issue. What I am doing here is simple. Every month I read the public record for the county and all six towns, pull the numbers, and write down what actually happened and what I think it means for anyone who owns, buys or builds on land here. Everything is sourced. If I cannot confirm something, I do not print it.

The month in brief

  1. A $700 million hospital sale cleared its first vote. Commissioners approved a non-binding letter of intent with Ascension Saint Thomas on September 9. A 120-day exclusivity clock is now running.
  2. School enrollment fell again — 40,648 students, down 726. The district's own 2022 five-year model called for 48,732.
  3. Supply loosened as rates turned back up. Months of supply went from 4.59 to 5.18 in a single month while the 30-year went from 6.65% to 6.76% in three weeks.

The County

A new mayor, and the biggest financial decision this county has ever made

A twenty-four year mayoralty ended in August. The body that replaced it opened with a nine-figure vote.

Andy Marshall is the new county mayor

Confirmed · August 24, 2026 · Historic Williamson County Courthouse

Marshall took the oath from Governor Bill Lee on August 24. He won the August 6 election 30,471 to 12,707 over B.K. Muvvala, and he takes over from Rogers Anderson after twenty-four years.

Fifteen Republican incumbents held their commission seats, so the body itself has not changed much. The office that runs it has.

What I'd do with thisThe county's Comprehensive Land Use Plan was adopted in 2007 on a twenty-year horizon and last amended in 2011. It runs out next year, under a brand new mayor. A comprehensive plan rewrite is the single best process a landowner can get in front of, and nobody has announced one yet. If you own acreage in the county, this is the year to start showing up.

The commission approves a letter of intent to sell Williamson Health

Confirmed from the meeting video · Wednesday, September 9

The commission approved a non-binding, exclusive letter of intent to sell the county-owned hospital system to Ascension Saint Thomas. The base purchase price is $700 million. The county would also receive $4 million a year for five years in lieu of property taxes. Exclusivity runs 120 days.

Nothing is final. A definitive agreement needs a second commission vote and a second board vote. The Tennessee Attorney General has to receive the transaction details at least 45 days before closing, and public notice goes out within five days of that filing. Best estimate on closing is 2027 or 2028.

Four outlets covered this meeting and not one of them printed a vote count, so I pulled the roll off the county’s own meeting video. A motion to defer to November failed 8–16. The letter of intent passed 19–5. Twenty-four commissioners voted — twenty-three in the room, Commissioner Barb Sturgeon by phone, none absent.

Total deal value is still being reported anywhere from $900 million to $950 million, and the capital commitment two different ways. Those I am leaving out until the definitive agreement is filed.

What I'd do with thisTwo things matter here if you own land. First, a county that funds its schools through debt and an adequate facilities tax is about to receive a very large one-time inflow, and the next impact fee study is due. Watch where those proceeds go. If they go to school capital, the argument for raising fees on builders gets a lot weaker. Second, county-owned hospital real estate and its outparcels change hands in this deal. The 45-day Attorney General notice is the moment the parcel schedule becomes public. That is when to re-underwrite medical office and anything adjacent to the Franklin campus. Not before.

The vote nobody reported, and the one that decides where the money goes

Confirmed from the meeting video · Resolution 9-26-2 · Adopted 24–0

Straight after the letter of intent the commission passed a second resolution the same night. Nobody covered it. It is the more consequential of the two.

Under Tennessee law the proceeds of a hospital district sale do not automatically reach the county that owns the facility. Last November this commission asked the state legislature to change that, and the legislature did — it wrote in an exception. Where the sale price, not the net proceeds, exceeds $500 million, the money flows to the county’s taxpayers through their elected commission. The $700 million base price clears the threshold. Resolution 9-26-2 is the county formally taking that exception, and it needed a two-thirds majority to do it. It got 24–0.

What I’d do with thisThis is the answer to the question everyone has been asking badly. A very large one-time inflow does not land with the hospital district and it does not land in a trust beyond reach. It lands with the county commission, as money this body decides how to spend. That makes the next budget cycle and the next impact fee study the two rooms worth being in. And it means the figure to watch is the sale price, because that is what the exception is keyed to — not net proceeds, and not total deal value.

The budget that governs this year

Confirmed · Adopted June 18, 2026 · 17–3

The FY 2026-27 budget came in at $921,945,333. The property tax rate held at $1.30 with no increase. Commissioners got there by moving two pennies — the General Fund went from $0.28 to $0.26, and the General Purpose School Fund came down from a proposed $0.80 to $0.77. The school operating budget is $566,790,932. Seventy-seven cents of every $1.30 goes to schools.

The Number

40,648 students — about 8,000 fewer than the model called for

The most important number published in this county last month came out of a two-page PDF on the school district's own server.

Enrollment fell by 726 students, or 1.75%

Confirmed · WCS district enrollment figures, prepared September 4, 2026

The district counted 40,648 students for 2026-27. Last year it was 41,374. The five-year attendance projection the district prepared in May 2022 put this year at 48,732. Actual enrollment is running about 8,084 students below the model that has anchored a decade of capacity argument in this county.

Here is the honest part, and it matters. The district's current internal projection for this year was 40,042, and the actual count came in 606 above it. Their present-day model is close. It is the 2022 five-year model — the one that gets quoted at planning commission podiums — that missed by 17%.

Where capacity is still genuinely tight

Confirmed · WCS open-zoned schools list, 2026-27

These schools have zero open-zoned seats: Nolensville Elementary at 100% of capacity, Trinity Elementary at 94%, Arrington Elementary at 91%, Mill Creek Elementary, Page Middle at 97%, Mill Creek Middle at 102%, and Woodland Middle at 101%.

All nine high schools have open seats, between 21 and 157 each. Most elementaries have room.

What I'd do with thisThis is the most precise public capacity map we have, and it is the map to bring to a rezoning hearing. A school capacity objection has real teeth in Nolensville, Arrington, College Grove and the Mill Creek–Page corridors. Everywhere else in the county, and at the high school level anywhere, it does not. One more thing to watch: a materially different school board was seated on August 17, with five members' terms ending, and it will vote the next capital plan against a falling enrollment number. The published five-year capital plan is still the November 2024 version — roughly $879 million, with Split Log Middle at $98 million for Fall 2027 and High School West at $135 million for Fall 2031.

Entitlements

The ledger

Every rezoning, annexation and planned development action that moved between August 1 and September 10, and where each one actually landed.

JurisdictionProject & locationSizeStatusDate
BrentwoodCrews Subdivision — OSRD and R-2 zoning with annexationWest of Hillsboro Rd, south of Old Hickory Blvd76.72 ac
25 lots
AdoptedAug 24
FranklinHarpeth Village — ER/LI to PD 9.2/75,000318 Franklin Rd; 1117, 1121, 1123 Harpeth Industrial Ct20.33 acDeferred 6–2Sep 8
FranklinPoplars Reserve — annexation and PD 1.8North of Clovercroft Rd, east of Oxford Glen Dr · five properties22.78 acAdoptedAug 25
FranklinDenson Place — PD to PD 21.70, with a Franklin Housing Authority parkland impact fee agreement137 Natchez Street5.14 acAdoptedAug 25
FranklinIris Place — PD to PD 18.85, with a Franklin Housing Authority parkland impact fee agreement500 West Meade Boulevard7.68 acAdoptedAug 25
FranklinBassett PUD — RC12 to PD 32.72408 and 2412 Goose Creek Bypass7.03 acThird reading — verifyingAug 25
Spring HillSpring Hill Commerce Center — I-2 General Industrial to Planned DevelopmentOrdinance 26-12 (PDA 2097-2026)~44 acOutcome unknownAug 17
Thompson's
Station
Central Business Improvement District — Resolution 2026-024 and first reading of Ordinance 2026-020Town center—First readingAug 31
Thompson's
Station
On-site wastewater standards — LDO Article 3, Section 3.10.5Ordinance 2026-018, public hearing and second readingTownwideHeard Sep 8Sep 8
NolensvilleGreenbrook East — Rural Large to Neighborhood Center Character District0 Rocky Fork Rd · Map 056, Parcel 11701—Outcome unknownAug 11
FairviewNothing retrieved for this windowTheir agenda archive has not updated since April 2026 and minutes post as scanned images—Not covered—

"Outcome unknown" means the item was properly noticed and heard, but the minutes are not published yet. Spring Hill, Thompson's Station and Nolensville run four to eight weeks behind. I do not report anything as passed unless a primary record says it passed.

Two things the ledger tells you

Brentwood is still where entitlement moves fast. Crews Subdivision went from a 10–0 planning recommendation on August 3 to zoned and annexed on August 24. That is 76.72 acres, 25 lots plus a reserve lot, with about 32 acres of common open space, done in three weeks. I would expect a preliminary plat filing next.

Franklin is where it does not. The board deferred Harpeth Village's first reading and public hearing to October 13 on a 6–2 vote. That is an industrial-to-residential conversion at 9.2 units an acre just off Franklin Road. A 6–2 deferral with a date certain is not a scheduling problem. That is resistance with a calendar attached.

The Template

Asbury — 311 acres at 0.78 units per acre

Boyle Investment Company revealed its plan for the old Harlin farm this month. The zoning that carries it is the more useful story.

Confirmed from the ordinance · Ord. 2025-06, third and final reading, April 28, 2026

The City of Franklin zoned 311.21 acres at 1247 Hillview Lane — west of Hillview Lane and north of Coleman Road — to PD 0.78/32,000/80 with a Hillside Hillcrest Overlay. At that density cap you get roughly 243 units of approved capacity across the whole tract. Boyle's own site describes more than 200 acres of preserved open space, estate homesites of two to eight acres, a boutique inn and some neighborhood commercial, with construction starting in 2027.

Press coverage puts the site at 375 acres and 249 residences. That is the whole Harlin family holding. The rezoning covers 311.21 acres of it, and PD 0.78 is the cap that governs what can actually be built there. Both numbers are correct — they answer different questions. For anyone underwriting against it, the number that binds is 311.21 acres at 0.78.

What I'd do with thisThis is now the working template for entitling a big tract in south Franklin — very low density, a lot of open space dedicated, the Village Green designation that came out of the 2024 Envision Franklin plan, and road improvements attached as a permit condition. There is also a product angle worth acting on. Two to eight acre estate homesites inside the Franklin city limits are the scarcest residential product in this county. If you are holding a comparable tract, you now have a comp for what the entitlement looks like and a good read on what the market will carry.

The Market

The last official numbers, and what August did to rates

WCAR publishes Williamson County's official figures mid-month, so July is the most recent complete release. August's Williamson numbers land in the next issue. Everything below comes from WCAR and Greater Nashville REALTORS, both sourced to Realtracs.

Williamson County, July 2026 against July 2025

Confirmed · Williamson County Association of REALTORS, monthly market stats

Residential, all WilliamsonJul 2025Jul 2026YoY
New listings758669−12%
Closings420425+1%
Average sale price$1,249,833$1,464,384+17%
Median sale price$979,162$1,133,000+16%
Total inventory2,1522,301+7%
Months of supply4.064.26+5%
Average days on market3030−2%
List to contract, days5852−11%

Read those together and the picture is clear enough. Prices are up 16 to 17% on closings that are essentially flat, while new listings are down 12%. What is holding this market up is not demand running hot. It is that not much is coming to market, and what does come to market is going under contract six days faster than it did a year ago.

Where those numbers actually live

Confirmed · WCAR, July 2026, single family by city

CityClosingsMedianAverageDOMMo. supply
Arrington15$1,600,000$1,771,308262.87
Brentwood79$1,625,000$2,001,367264.07
College Grove21$1,408,000$1,883,964444.94
Fairview26$624,950$717,969336.16
Franklin192$1,125,000$1,507,110323.71
Nolensville29$935,000$1,206,902324.63
Spring Hill30$634,500$689,043225.07
Thompson’s Station33$844,000$1,042,987185.59
County425$1,133,000$1,464,384304.26
What I’d do with thisArrington at 2.87 months is the tightest submarket in the county and it is not close. If you have land or lots anywhere near Arrington, that is the number to put in front of a builder. At the other end, Fairview sits at 6.16 months and Thompson’s Station at 5.59. Thompson’s Station is the one I would watch, because it has the fastest days on market in the county at 18 days and the second highest supply. That combination means the right product moves quickly there and everything else sits. Price and product matter more in that market right now than in any other town on this list.

August, across the nine-county region

Confirmed · Greater Nashville REALTORS, August 2026

Regionally, August closings came in at 2,928 across all property types, down from 3,269 in July. Residential accounted for 2,306 of those at a median of $515,725, against $520,000 in July and $537,000 in June. Residential inventory finished the month at 10,532. Pendings were 2,409, and list to contract ran 55 days.

The line worth pulling out for anyone in my business is the land line. Farm, land and lots produced 168 closings against 2,142 listings in inventory. On that pace that is close to thirteen months of supply, which is my own arithmetic on their published numbers, not a figure they publish. Land does not move the way houses move, and it never has.

Three straight weeks up

Confirmed · Freddie Mac PMMS weekly averages

The 30-year fixed averaged 6.69% on August 6, then 6.67%, then 6.65% on August 20, then 6.66%. Then 6.71% and 6.76% in the first two weeks of September. Rates bottomed on August 20 and have gone up three weeks running. We are about 41 basis points above where we were a year ago.

Two land closings worth knowing about

Recorded transfers · Week of August 17–21, 2026

Land: Kittrell Road, Franklin at $5,475,000, and 7725 Caney Fork Road, Fairview at $3,197,500. Acreage was not disclosed on either filing, so neither one gives us a per-acre number.

Improved, that same week: 7116 Lanceleaf Drive in Troubadour at $7,500,000, 379 Jones Parkway in Annandale at $6,050,000, and 2562 Goose Creek Bypass in Franklin at $6,000,000.

Transfer roundups run about three weeks behind, so the August 24–31 closings will show up in the next issue. On the listing side, Williamson County land is showing a median asking price of $110,848 an acre across 215 listings and 5,155 acres. That is asking, not closed, and it is not a valuation.

What Gates Growth

Roads, sewer, and the cost of a tap

Roads and sewer decide what land can become. Four items this month, and one of them quietly raises the cost of every lot in three weeks.

The I-65 corridor study closed its comment record on September 8

Confirmed · TDOT Planning and Environmental Linkages study, project 1249

TDOT held public meetings in Spring Hill on August 13, Nashville on August 17 and Franklin on August 18. The study covers 34 miles of I-65, from SR-155 at Thompson Lane down to SR-99/US-412 at Bear Creek Pike, across Davidson, Williamson and Maury counties. Comments closed September 8.

What I'd do with thisA PEL study is the step before NEPA, and it sets the corridor's future footprint — where the lanes go, where the interchanges go, where right of way gets taken. It shapes interchange decisions years before anything is ever let for construction. If you own frontage or an assemblage anywhere on I-65 between Nashville and Columbia, the record that closed on September 8 is the document that matters. Watch for the report that comes out of it.

Real added capacity is a 2028 event

Confirmed · TDOT Region 3 project page

The I-65 widening near June Lake Boulevard adds at least one lane each direction from north of SR-396 at Saturn Parkway up to the I-840 interchange, plus auxiliary lanes and two replacement overpasses.

The schedule is RFQ this quarter, RFP in Q2 2027, design-builder picked in Q3 2027, and construction starting in FY 2028. Underwrite to 2028. Not sooner.

Separately, resurfacing on I-840 from Columbia Pike to east of Arno Road, and on I-65 from I-840 to Liberty Pike, runs at night through December. That is maintenance, no new capacity, but it will affect how you get clients around the county for the rest of the year.

Sewer is still the binding constraint, in three different places

Status needs verifying · Spring Hill, the Harpeth, College Grove

Spring Hill. The city is still operating under a TDEC consent order. Ordinance 25-29, passed January 5, 2026, replaced the blanket suspension with a capacity allocation framework, and every project that receives an allocation has to install flow meters. The original moratorium runs until the treatment plant meets performance standards for twelve consecutive months. A sewer capacity request showed up on the August 17 work session agenda, which tells me the framework is operating. I could not get a 2026-dated confirmation of the current status, so call the city before you rely on it either way.

The Harpeth. TDEC has not ruled on Limestone Water Utility's NPDES permit TN0027278, which would take a plant from 0.25 to 0.45 MGD discharging at river mile 68.8. The Harpeth has been listed as impaired for phosphorus for twenty-one years, and the county passed an ordinance in February blocking new growth behind failing plants. That decision is a direct gate on absorption in that part of the county.

College Grove. TPUC Docket 26-00063, filed July 22, asks to extend Limestone's certificate to serve a proposed Troubadour expansion — 85 more lots on about 157 acres, roughly 172 new wastewater connections, taking permitted capacity from 0.1175 to 0.1753 MGD. That docket is the approval those lots are waiting on.

Your cost per lot goes up on October 1

Confirmed · Milcrofton UD, Mallory Valley UD

Milcrofton's published access fee escalator raised the three-quarter inch tap by $1,000 and the one inch by $2,000 effective October 1, 2025, and there are further increases scheduled for October 2026 and October 2027. Mallory Valley has a fee change effective October 1, 2026.

Neither district posts agendas or minutes online. Their meeting notices run in the Williamson Herald legals, and that is the only reliable way to catch them. If you have lots closing in the fourth quarter, price the tap fees now.

One more to watch. The City of Franklin starts sewer smoke testing on September 14, beginning in Eagles Glen off Liberty Pike and then working the zones between Mack Hatcher Parkway and Mallory Lane. Smoke testing is how a city finds inflow and infiltration, and those findings are what come before capacity restrictions and, eventually, allocation or fee changes.

Pipeline

Ear to the ground

Short items out of plats, permit trackers and construction dashboards — the things you see on a site visit before you see them in the news.

The Diary

Next thirty days

County meeting dates below come off the standing meeting pattern. Confirm any date you actually plan to attend.

That is the month. If something in here is wrong, tell me and I will run the correction in the next issue. If there is a project or a parcel you want me watching, tell me that too.

Luke Chadwick

Land developer, broker affiliate and auctioneer, Williamson County

The Record

Sources

County Williamson Herald — Marshall sworn in
Williamson Herald — election results
NewsChannel 5 — $700M letter of intent
WSMV — 120-day exclusivity
WC-TV — special called commission meeting, September 9 (roll calls)
Healthcare Finance News — deal terms
Williamson Herald — FY 2026-27 budget
Williamson County — regulations and plans

Schools WCS — 2026-27 enrollment figures
WCS — 2025-26 enrollment figures
WCS — five-year attendance projections
WCS — open-zoned schools, 2026-27
WCS — five-year capital plan
WCS InFocus — board, August 17

Entitlements City of Franklin — agendas and minutes
Franklin — adopted ordinances and resolutions
Brentwood — agenda portal
Williamson Herald — Brentwood annexation
Spring Hill — BOMA agenda, August 17
Thompson's Station — BOMA work session, August 31
Nolensville — Planning Commission, August 11
asburytn.com

Market WCAR — July 2026 Williamson County market stats
Greater Nashville REALTORS — monthly home sales report
Freddie Mac — Primary Mortgage Market Survey
Freddie Mac — PMMS archive
Williamson Source — property transfers, August 17–21
Land.com — Williamson County listings

Infrastructure TDOT — I-65 PEL public meetings
TDOT — I-65 widening near June Lake
TDOT — Williamson County resurfacing
Spring Hill — capacity allocation framework
TPUC — Docket 26-00063, Troubadour
Milcrofton Utility District
Mallory Valley Utility District
Williamson Source — Franklin smoke testing

Pipeline Nolensville — current commercial projects
Brentwood — Planning Commission, August 3
Williamson Herald — Riverview House
Williamson Source — business
Williamson Herald — visitor spending
FRED — Williamson County unemployment

Subscribe

If this was forwarded to you, this is where to get the next one.

Free. One email a month. Unsubscribe any time.